Flooding Chances Ramp Up Today

RALEIGH, N.C. (WTVD) — We are already seeing scattered rain across the Triangle as a result of the moisture from Sally interacting with the old front that is still draped across South Carolina this morning. This will become more widespread and heavier as the day progresses, with heavy rainfall in parts of the area this afternoon. Any heavy rainfall before sunset is most likely to be across western and southern parts of the Triangle, but there can be heavy areas of rain just about anywhere.

As Sally continues to track east-northeast across South Carolina and southeastern North Carolina tonight into early tomorrow, we’ll see a wide swath of heavy, overrunning rainfall developing. This is when we will pick up most of our rain, and widespread amounts of 2-5 inches are likely. There could end up being a significant gradient across the area, with far south/east areas getting closer to 2 inches, but areas to the north and west of Durham will pick up a solid 4 inches.

Because of the flooding potential, the NWS has the entire area under a flash flood watch.

The good news is that the models have come into decent alignment on the speed of Sally, and they carry the center of the storm to right along the coast by daybreak tomorrow. This will mean a quick end to the heavy rain Friday, and though the northeast flow that lingers behind the storm tomorrow can still funnel in some lighter rain or perhaps just a bit of drizzle, we begin to dry out. Clouds will hold on though, and it will be a breezy and cool day on Saturday. Dew points begin to fall as well as we feel the influence of the next high pressure area pushing through the Great Lakes; this is what drives a cold front our way and steers Sally out to sea.

As that high pressure area settles over the Northeast for the weekend and into early next week, the flow will remain northeasterly. While there will be drier air pushing into the region, it will be battling with the low-level moisture being drawn in on the northeasterly flow.
Additionally on Saturday, a southwesterly flow aloft up and over the northeasterly flow can have a lot of mid- and high clouds across the sky; all of this will make it tough for us to clear completely Saturday. However, it will be mostly sunny Sunday as the drier air continues to push deeper into the area.

Have a great Thursday and stay dry!

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