Tracking strong storms, potential for flooding, tornados overnight | Timeline of severe weather

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There’s a severe weather threat across Southeast Texas to start the week. Here’s a look at the timing of the strong storms as well as hail and tornado potential.

HOUSTON — The threat for severe weather across Southeast Texas is now looking likely for tonight into Tuesday morning with the pronounced threats for damaging wind, large hail, flash flooding and isolated strong tornadoes.

There has been an ongoing trend indicated by almost all of the computer models for a slower progression of the front through our region. As a result, the timing has shifted to later in the overnight Monday through the morning commute Tuesday potentially becoming even more impactful with folks on the roads.

As the front moves through, hail, damaging winds upwards of 60 mph, isolated tornadoes and heavy downpours are capable of producing flash flooding.

“Street flooding is becoming more likely,” KHOU 11 Chief Meteorologist David Paul said at noon. “I think some of the bayous may react and spill, at least partially as we head into the overnight.”

That is why we have a Flash Flood Watch in effect tonight through early tomorrow morning.

Here’s a look at the timing of the storms

Monday 5 p.m.: Most of the daylight hours on Monday will feature, cloudy, windy conditions with pockets of heavy, tropical downpours. Within these cells, there could be an isolated stronger storm.

Monday 8 p.m.: Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms, heavy downpours, gusty winds. The cold front and dry line at this time are still located well to the west of our area.

Monday 11 p.m.: Storms are becoming a bit stronger, the severe threat is increasing during this time with damaging winds, large hail, flooding downpours and isolated tornadoes becoming more prominent as an advancing dryline acts to instigate the atmosphere and produce a more defined line of strong storms.

Tuesday 2 a.m.: The advancing dryline ignites more strong storms with the potential of supercells developing and pivoting slowly through our western cities and counties. Threat significantly increases for tornadoes, damaging winds, large hail and flash flooding.

Tuesday 5 a.m.: The dryline thunderstorms diminish but the cold front fires off a more defined squall line moving into our western cities and counties in the very early morning hours of Tuesday. The flash flooding threat is significantly increased as the line is slow to move and will deliver 2 to 3 inches per hour rainfall rates. Overnight tornado, damaging wind and large hail threats continue to be high.

Tuesday 8 a.m.: The cold front is pushing through the Houston metro in the middle of the morning commute Tuesday. Blinding, flooding downpours with flash flooding likely with this slow-moving squall line. Embedded tornadoes, damaging straight line winds and large hail is also possible.

Tuesday 10 a.m.: The passing of the cold front won’t happen until later tomorrow morning. The majority of the severe storms have now pushed east of I-45 and improving conditions begin to work into our area. Most areas are out of the woods in terms of a severe threat at this time.

Here’s a closer look at what to expect:

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Stay close to the forecast and the weather team at KHOU 11 News for the latest changes and up-to-date information. With the threat coming in overnight, it is even more important to exercise your storm plan now and be ready at a moment’s notice to seek a safe place if a tornado warning is issued for your area or flash flooding breaks out. Download the KHOU 11 News app to receive all alerts immediately to your phone.

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Here’s a look at the timing of the storms

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