Rebuild or retreat? Hurricane Ian aftermath raises questions about coastal development

Hurricane Ian is one of the costliest storms to ever hit the U.S. with nearly $70 billion in insured losses from Florida to the Carolinas.

As rebuilding continues in the path of destruction, tough questions come up about the vulnerability of coastal development.

When a tropical storm or hurricane demolishes homes, businesses and infrastructure, communities often begin the long road of rebuilding, often with taxpayer-funded support. The toll of destruction is only expected to rise with the warming ocean.

“Fifty years from now, the sea level will be different, so it will take a much weaker storm to cause the same amount of damage as a Category 1 does now,” said University of North Carolina at Wilmington coastal engineering professor Ryan Mieras.

Mieras researches storm impact and beach erosion with specialized technology. Federal dollars also go into pumping sand back on beaches, a process known as renourishment. Studies have shown that practice increases oceanfront development.

“The reason they keep getting renourished is because the potential economic loss of not renourishing is so high, because the property values there are so high,” Mieras said.

Army Corps of Engineers project manager Bob Keisler said building up beaches saves money by reducing storm damage.

“The erosion takes away our protection,” Keisler said.

Data from Western Carolina University shows federal, state governments and local governments have spent more than $1 billion on renourishment in North Carolina since the 1950s.

This cost of this year’s projects are expected to jump with the added cost of offshore sand sourcing.

“We do not have enough sediment for renourishment projects a decade away from now,” said UNCW coastal geology professor Andrea Hawkes.

Hawkes said there should be more concern for rebuilding in vulnerable communities after seeing destruction from hurricanes like Ian.

“It’s just untenable,” Hawkes said. “How they feel right now, they will feel again and their kids will feel several times in their lifetimes.”

Increasingly, municipal and federal leaders are considering what’s called managed retreat, which is relocating communities to less hazardous areas. It is considered a proactive way to avoid damage and minimize costs.

“That really neglects the actual human element,” Mieras said. “Sure, yes, that is the easiest technical solution to mitigate all structural damage from here forward, but there are businesses there are property owners and it does extremely stimulate local economies.”

Others believe it’s time to adapt now that sea level rise is something that is unavoidable.

“Folks just have to start considering changing where and how we live,” Hawkes said.

A North Carolina community prone to flooding has already embraced an adaptive approach. After Hurricane Matthew decimated the town of Princeville in 2016, the town started the process of annexing a 53-acre parcel of land outside of the 100-year floodplain to develop a safer, higher-ground area for residents to relocate.

The Army Corps manages these projects under 50-year contracts that must justify the expense. That will get harder with climate change, which now is considered in the cost-benefit analysis for each project.

A report last month from the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration projects the water levels along the East Coast will rise an average of 10 to 12 inches in the next 30 years. That’s equal to the total increase in the past 100 years.