Timeline: Severe storms bring wind, tornado threat Friday afternoon into evening

AUSTIN, Texas — Friday is a day where we want you to be weather aware. A strong Pacific cold front sweeps into Central Texas Friday afternoon, bringing an increasing likelihood of severe storms. 

The Storm Prediction Center has now upgraded areas along and east of the I-35 corridor to the ‘enhanced’ – level 3 of 5 – risk for severe storms. The primary threats will be damaging winds and tornadoes, including the possibility of one or two significant tornadoes. Pockets of large hail will also be possible

Make sure you have a way to get weather alerts between 4 p.m. and midnight Friday. This is the overall severe weather window, but we have a detailed breakdown of the timeline below:

Thursday morning will begin with clouds and a few light showers or drizzle, but there is no threat of severe weather early in the day. By the early to mid afternoon we will likely see the clouds and showers break up to reveal sunshine and temperatures in the 80s. If this happens, the stage will be set for severe storms. 

Storms will develop along a cold front that moves in during the afternoon, but the crucial part of the forecast is where exactly the storms first develop. Do they develop west of I-35 and push right into the metro? Do they develop right over the I-35 corridor with a glancing blow and then move eastward? Or do they develop just east of I-35 and miss the heart of the metro all together?

These are all realistic scenarios, but right now our most reliable computer models show storms developing by late afternoon over eastern Burnet and Blanco counties west of I-35. 

These storms would then very quickly spread into the I-35 corridor as they intensify by 7 p.m. or 8 p.m. with the threat for wind, tornadoes, and some pockets of hail. 

The storms then push east of the I-35 corridor during the later evening hours, with the main concern perhaps shifting to damaging winds as an organized line of storms develops.

By midnight the storms should be pushing out of Fayette and Lee counties, and this will end our threat for severe weather. Cooler and drier air rushes in by Saturday morning as temperatures drop to the 40s and 50s. 

Following the storms, the rest of the weekend will be pleasant and mainly dry. Temperatures are back in the 80s for most of next week with some small rain chances but no major storm threats.

Stick with the KVUE Storm Team for the latest on this developing situation.

In the meantime, the 7-Day forecast is below.

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