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Brad Panovich: Expected impacts from Subtropical Storm Nicole
Subtropical Storm Nicole is expected to bring heavy rain and high winds to the Carolinas with significant storm surge possible along the coast.
CHARLOTTE, N.C. â The Carolinas could feel the effects of subtropical storm Nicole, with rain and wind likely in the Charlotte area by Friday, WCNC Charlotte chief meteorologist Brad Panovich said.
Nicole is expected to approach the Carolina coast by the end of the week as cooler air moves into the Charlotte metro area. Panovich said the current track shows Nicole moving toward Florida’s Atlantic coast before turning north toward South Carolina.
What is a subtropical storm?
Think of a subtropical storm as sort of a hybrid of a tropical storm or hurricane and a nor’easter. Subtropical storms are a bit cooler in the center, meaning the strongest winds are away from the center of circulation, or eye, in the case of a hurricane and tropical storm. The other big difference is sometimes subtropical storms have fronts attached to them, so they’re not purely tropical.
The good news is Nicole isn’t forecast to be a particularly strong storm, but it could have widespread impacts along the coast with heavy rain and gusty winds.
“As this system approaches the coast, it’s going to be spreading a big wind field and pushing a lot of water,” Panovich said. “So there could be significant surge here. Basically, what happens is every day the tide comes in and doesn’t go out. And by the next day, it gets a little bit higher and doesn’t really go out. So every high tide gets a bit higher, so over the next couple of days the water will build and we’ll probably see some significant flooding along the coast. Not the widespread stuff like you see with a hurricane, but probably more of a slow but steady increase in the tides running every single day.”
The forecast for Nicole is pretty straightforward, according to Panovich, who says the computer models are pretty good about the track. Where the models struggle with subtropical systems is with intensity.
“Right now, all of the intensity forecasts bring is basically to a minimal hurricane or weak tropical storm or a strong tropical storm,” Panovich said. “I wouldn’t get too caught up in this, I think the bigger story is going to be the widespread impacts.”
Subtropical Storm Nicole timing
Panovich said Nicole could become a weak hurricane as early as Wednesday afternoon. It will then move over Florida before turning north toward the Carolinas. The storm is expected to approach South Carolina’s coast by Saturday.
Keep in mind those times are for the center of the storm. Impacts will be felt before the center reaches the Carolinas. Charlotte could see rain and gusty winds by Friday as Nicole moves north. An area of high pressure over eastern Canada is creating what Panovich calls a “squeeze play” that can lead to heavier rain and stronger winds.
“The low pressure is likely going to expand some pretty heavy rain, sheets of rain, way ahead of the system,” Panovich explained. “This will be moving into the Carolinas on Thursday.”
If you plan to be at the Panthers game Thursday night, be prepared. Panovich expects widespread rain Thursday into Friday, which will have an impact on the game at Bank of America Stadium.
“Thursday night we’re likely going to have showers move in at some point during the game,” Panovich said. “Maybe early or late, depending on the timing of the bands but it’s definitely going to be windy.”
Panovich said the track will determine how much rain we see in Charlotte. If the storm stays closer to the coast, that’s less rain for the western Carolinas. Should it track a little further inland, we could see higher rainfall totals.
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