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El Niño's impact on Hurricane Season
El Niño conditions could lower the chances of hurricane development.
TEXAS, USA — While we’ve been gripped in a La Niña pattern for the last three years, we fully expect that to make a complete 180-degree shift as we head into Summer.
The National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center has issued an El Niño watch, as the center predicts a 62% chance of an El Niño developing starting between May and July and continuing on through the upcoming winter.
Currently, we are in the neutral phase as we transition from a La Niña pattern to an El Niño pattern. This phase is called the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Neutral phase. When El Niño begins, we expect a few changes to our weather here in Central Texas.
Before we delve into the ramifications of hurricane season, it’s important to know the differences between El Niño and La Niña.
In a normal pattern, warmer water is pushed away from South America and towards Asia, without the upwelling of cooler water as what would take place in a La Niña pattern.
In an El Niño pattern, those trade winds weaken and warmer water remains off the coast of South America.
Thus, Texas is generally wetter and cooler during the winter months, which could mean an end to our drought, but it also could cause flooding concerns down the line. Additionally, with the cooler temperatures, some of that precipitation could be on the wintry side, which is different from a La Niña, where we are warmer and drier in Central Texas.
With that all in mind, it’s important to note the impacts of the new pattern on hurricane season. Colorado State University has released its latest hurricane outlook for 2023, and it projects that we will have a below-average hurricane season – despite the warmer sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic – due to increased vertical wind shear.
With that said, it’s important to note that according to Colorado State University and the Climate Prediction Center, there is still uncertainty as to how strong El Niño will be. Weaker El Niños usually result in a more average hurricane season, whereas in a stronger El Niño, will likely have fewer hurricanes.
However – with all of this in mind – it’s important to note that it only takes one major hurricane to make landfall for it to be an active hurricane season for a given area.
For more on how the pattern can affect our weather locally, click on the link here.