Brad Panovich: 'Potent' storm system could bring severe weather to Charlotte Monday

CHARLOTTE, N.C. — Severe storms Monday evening across the Carolinas could bring a risk of damaging wind and hail to Charlotte and across both North Carolina and South Carolina. There is also a small risk of tornadoes and flash flooding.

That’s why the WCNC Charlotte Weather Team wants you to stay Weather Aware.

Storms could produce wind gusts in excess of 60 mph, which is strong enough to bring down trees and power lines.

RAISE YOUR WEATHER IQ: Understanding wind speed 

In most of Charlotte and the surrounding portions of the Carolinas, the greatest threat from these storms is damaging wind. The WCNC Charlotte Weather Team is forecasting a medium threat for strong winds. Locations likely to see these strong winds include Charlotte, Fort Mill, Rock Hill, Monroe, Gastonia, Hickory, Concord, Kannapolis, Salisbury, Statesville and Hickory. The threat is slightly lower in the western North Carolina mountains, such as Boone and Blowing Rock, because the temperature is forecast to be slightly cooler there.

“If we get sunshine for several hours and it’s 90-plus degrees on Monday, we gotta be weather aware, WCNC Charlotte Chief Meteorologist Brad Panovich warned in his forecast vlog, where he details and explains his forecast to subscribers of the WCNC Charlotte Weather IQ YouTube channel.

🌩️ If you like weather, watch Brad Panovich and the WCNC Charlotte Weather Team on their Emmy Award-winning Weather IQ YouTube channel. 🎥

Forecaster Larry Sprinkle said the biggest threat for severe weather will be east of Interstate 77, but there’s the possibility of isolated cells that pop up anywhere in the Charlotte area. Those areas with the most enhanced risk of severe weather include Albemarle, Pinehurst and Southern Pines. 

The tornado threat remains around 2% for the Charlotte area. 

RAISE YOUR WEATHER IQ: Supercell thunderstorms

“If there’s an isolated cell or two that develops into what we call supercell, then we could see some small rotation, but remember, supercells also produce big hail.”

The threat of damaging winds and hail is approximately 15% to 20%, Panovich said. 

The risk of damaging wind and hail rises to over 30% in North Carolina cities such as Greensboro, High Point, Winston-Salem, Raleigh, Cary, and Durham.

“I had to heighten the flood risk a little bit just because we had so much rain last week,” Panovich explained. “If we do see some training or a couple of storms in the same spot again and again, that could lead to some flash flooding.”

RAISE YOUR WEATHER IQ: Understanding flash flooding

“There could be a couple of storms dying in the morning but this [storm threat] is late into the afternoon,” Panovich explained.

Monday morning’s commute in Charlotte could include rain and clouds, according to the WCNC Charlotte weather forecast. Those clouds will clear towards the afternoon hours. In the absence of clouds, the weather, like Sunday, will have an opportunity to heat up under the hot sun.

“It’ll be hot ahead of those storms,” WCNC Charlotte meteorologist KJ Jacobs said.  

The radar may appear clear until the evening commute. Sprinkle said showers will begin to move into the Charlotte area around 5 p.m. and there will be the potential for severe storms nearly everywhere in the Carolinas. 

“It is going to be like a match lighting gasoline,” Jacobs said. “That is going to allow those storms to pop off.”

The storms are forecast to appear first in the foothills of North Carolina, including in places like Hickory, Taylorsville, Lincolnton, and Gastonia. The storms will then move east toward Charlotte and the Interstate 77 corridor.

By 6 p.m., the storms could be moving through Charlotte before moving onto Kannapolis, Salisbury, Monroe, and points east.

The timing is key, Panovich warned in his video analysis.

“This is a pretty potent storm system,” Panovich said.

It’s almost-certain storms will move along the Interstate 40 corridor, including Hickory and Statesville, before entering the Triad on Monday. There remains some uncertainty regarding the atmospheric instability in Charlotte and to the south of the Queen City.

“The Charlotte metro may skip some of the most severe weather,” Sprinkle said. “It’s really going to be east of I-77 when that line of strong and possibly severe thunderstorms pops.”

RAISE YOUR WEATHER IQ: How thunderstorm fuel helps forecast thunderstorms

Severe storms thrive in an unstable atmosphere where there is plenty of thunderstorm fuel called “CAPE.” A hot afternoon full of clear skies and lots of sunshine is key to producing instability in the atmosphere. 

There’s a chance rain early Morning morning could help keep the atmosphere south of Charlotte stable enough to not produce too many storms. 

However, the WCNC Charlotte Weather Team forecasts a chance of storms high enough for much of the Carolinas that everyone should continue to stay weather aware for the potential of severe weather.

Stay informed of severe weather by downloading the WCNC Charlotte app and enabling weather alerts for your location.

Severe weather warnings will also scroll across WCNC Charlotte television throughout the day as the alerts are issued by the National Weather Service.

WCNC Charlotte’s Weather Team will have updates throughout the day on television. The team will also provide extended severe weather coverage streaming on WCNC+, the station’s free streaming channel available on WCNC.com and the WCNC apps for phones, Roku, and Amazon Fire.  

If the National Weather Service issues a Severe Thunderstorm Warning or a Tornado Warning for your location, you should head to your safe place.

RAISE YOUR WEATHER IQ: What defines a “Severe Thunderstorm Warning”

A safe place is a sturdy structure with as many walls between you and the outside as possible. The ideal location is on the lowest level of that structure and in the most interior room. You should avoid windows and doors that lead to the outside.

RAISE YOUR WEATHER IQ: Find your safe place

And remember… a “warning” means severe weather is imminent or already occurred.  A “watch” means ingredients are possible for storm development in the minutes and hours ahead. Whenever a “watch” is issued, you should stay Weather Aware for the potential a “warning” could be issued.

WCNC Charlotte’s Weather IQ YouTube channel gives detailed explainers from the WCNC Charlotte meteorologists to help you learn and understand weather, climate and science. Watch previous stories where you can raise your Weather IQ in the YouTube playlist below and subscribe to get updated when new videos are uploaded.