'Don't mess around': Idalia now a Cat-2 hurricane as it barrels toward Florida. Live updates

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SPRING HILL, Fla. − Historic Hurricane Idalia intensified to a Category 2 storm Tuesday as it powered through the Gulf of Mexico, a treacherous tropical cyclone driving a potentially deadly storm surge toward the Big Bend area of Florida’s west coast.

The National Weather Service warned of a “life-threatening, dangerous situation,” saying the storm could make landfall as a major hurricane Wednesday − meaning winds in excess of 110 mph.

“To put this system into the historical context, there are no major hurricanes in the historical dataset going back to 1851 that have tracked into Apalachee Bay. None,” the advisory said. “Don’t mess around with this.”

Idalia, steering winds of 100 mph, was centered about 195 miles southwest of Tampa on Tuesday afternoon. A hurricane warning was in place along hundreds of miles of Florida coastline as the storm headed toward an apparent landfall along Florida’s Big Bend.

Gov. Ron DeSantis said at a news briefing that highway tolls were being waived, shelters were opening and hotels were prepared to take evacuees. More than 30,000 utility workers were getting ready to repair outages when the storm passes.

DeSantis said landfall appeared to be headed toward Taylor County, southeast of Tallahassee and one of the most rural and economically challenged areas of the state. But he said it was too early to know exactly where the storm would hit.

“Everybody on the Gulf Coast from Tampa Bay to northwest Florida must be vigilant,” he said. “You’re going to see some nasty weather.”

At a self-serve sandbag site in Spring Hill, well within Hernando County’s mandatory evacuation zone, Jeff Manor and Judy Hodder were preparing bags to place along the doors and garage of their coastal home. They already brought in their outdoor furniture, towed their pontoon boat out of a nearby canal and tied it down on the side of their home.

“We’re staying here,” Hodder, 67, said as she wiped sweat from her forehead. “But if it starts coming at us, we’re gone.”

What is rapid intensification?How Idalia could quickly become a major hurricane before landfall

Developments:

∎ DeSantis said 5,000 National Guard members were activated, 580 search and rescue workers in eight teams were mobilized, 1,100 generators were prepped for deployment, and 200 ambulances were ready to sweep into the area. And 400,000 gallons of fuel was reserved for storm recovery.

∎ Idalia was heading north at 16 mph Tuesday and could gain power and speed as it curves to the north-northeast late into Wednesday, reaching sustained wind speeds of up to 125 mph before landfall.

∎ The center of Idalia was forecast to move over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, carrying a storm surge of up to 15 feet closest to where it hits land, possibly along Florida’s Big Bend, on Wednesday morning.

∎ Idalia was expected to remain a hurricane as it crosses into Georgia before moving over the Carolina coastline on Thursday, then out into the Atlantic, where its path remained uncertain.

∎ A new tropical depression has formed in the Atlantic, joining Hurricanes Idalia and Franklin on the National Hurricane Center’s radar. Tropical Depression Eleven was 855 miles away from Bermuda late Tuesday morning, and forecasters said it could become a tropical storm by night. If it does, it will be called Jose.

Florida is on storm surge watch:Here’s what that means

Follow the path of Idalia as storm heads for Florida

This forecast track shows the most likely path of the center of the storm but does not illustrate the full width of the storm or its impacts, and the center of the storm is likely to travel outside the cone up to 33% of the time. 

‘We’re solid here’: Business owners prepare for impact

CEDAR KEY, Fla. − In the mid-afternoon, Cedar Key’s quaint downtown and Dock Street area, its streets lined with restaurants and local shops on stilts firm in the Gulf of Mexico, were deserted. Metal and wood boards were nailed over windows and doors of beloved eateries, clashing with the pastel signage of restaurants bearing the names Tipsy Cow, Steamers and Duncan’s on the Gulf.

It’s one of a cluster of islands in the Gulf Coast known for its wildlife with about 800 residents and only one road going in or out.

Jordan Keeton, 39, owns 83 West, the largest restaurant on the island. It juts out over the Gulf of Mexico and both floors are surrounded by windows. He and his family and friends were moving out the last of the most valuable items, including a wooden bench shaped like a boat, which has been with the restaurant for over 50 years, he said.

Keeton, who is also the chef, has owned the restaurant since 2015. Soon after purchasing it, he renovated the place. The next year, however, Hurricane Hermine’s storm surge caused about $750,000 in damages. He and his brother James were upstairs when the storm hit. The downstairs was destroyed, and he found pieces of the deck at a fire station miles away.

Afterward, he made sure the new floors and walls could withstand flooding.

On Monday and Tuesday morning, they cleared the downstairs and lugged most of the furniture, kitchen supplies and alcohol upstairs.

“The plan is for the stuff to stay dry up here as the surge pushes through the downstairs and onto the island,” he said.

Keeton is going to stay through the storm at his nearby home, 16 feet above sea level.

“We should be fine at a Cat 3. Our house is rated at a 5. I’m not worried about it there,” he said, placing his hand on the second-floor dock of his restaurant, overlooking the overcast sky over the Gulf. “This one, not so much. So we’ll see what happens.”

On a country road, a few miles short of downtown, Lee Bryan and some of his friends were strapping down a large walk-in cooler he uses for his clam farming business, Bryan Farms.

“He’s worried the water will bring it off its pilings,” said Lee’s wife Leanna Bryan, a co-owner of the business.

The couple’s operation delivers clams to restaurants on three separate routes up and down the Nature Coast and Big Bend. They live off the Suwannee river and plan to stay there through the hurricane.

“When you live here, you know they’re going to come so you have to work with mother nature as much as you can,” she said. “Can’t control it so you got to just try and help yourself.”

Leanna Bryan said no matter the damage, Cedar Key and its residents will persevere.

“It’s a resilient community, we all come together and help each other,” she said. “We’re solid here.”

Hurricane Center chief: Be ready to survive several days on your own

National Hurricane Center Director Michael Brennan warned there are “likely going to be some devastated areas” in counties from the Florida coast into southern Georgia. The storm surge will be “difficult to survive” along a long stretch of the coast, including Citrus, Levy, Taylor and Franklin counties, Brennan said. Residents should have several days’ worth of food, medicine and emergency supplies on hand, he said.

“There may not be water, power and other amenities you’re used to having,” Brennan said. “You’re going to want to be prepared to survive several days on your own, without any support from anybody else.”

‘Gloom and doom … (or) everything is going to be fine’

Dozens of Hernando Beach and Weeki Wachee locals looking to fortify their homes on Tuesday took shovels to large sand mounds, packed bags full and lugged them to their cars and trucks within eyeshot of the Gulf of Mexico where several feet of storm surge is expected.

At a self-service sandbag site at Linda Pedersen Park in Spring Hill, Alan Covington, 63, and Vreli Covington, 63, stuffed the truck bed of their Ford F-150 with sandbags. For the past seven years, they have lived in a single-story home within 100 yards of the Gulf. 

“They’re for us but mostly for our neighbor, who has been in New Hampshire the last few days,” Alan Covington said, pointing to the bags. “I told him: ‘We’re gonna put sandbags up for you’ − not that it’s gonna do any good.”

The couple took in all the furniture, packed their important papers and stored their boat at a nearby marina. Once they set up the sandbags, they planned to take refuge at a friend’s two-story inland home.

“We’re going to push away with positivity,” Vreli Cunningham said. “We’re the two ends of the spectrum. Mister Doom and Gloom and me, Miss ‘Everything Is Going to be Fine.'”

Idalia in context: Previous storms have devastated Apalachee Bay

Other storms have set a precedent for devastating storm surge in communities along Apalachee Bay. In 2005, Hurricane Dennis, passing 120 miles to the west, produced a surprising storm surge of 6-9 feet higher than normal tide levels, inundating the community of St. Marks just south of Tallahassee.

Dennis obliterated Posey’s Oyster Grill and Bar, a highly popular restaurant known for its local seafood.

In an after-storm report by the hurricane center, hurricane specialist Jack Beven wrote the surge was “likely triggered by an oceanic trapped shelf wave that propagated northward along the Florida west coast.” 

Dennis approached at the right angle to trap a bulge of water between itself and the shore, Mark Wool, a meteorologist with the weather service, once told the Tallahassee Democrat. 

Idalia could thrive on warm waters of Gulf

Hurricane Idalia’s path toward Florida’s coast takes it through a steamy hot tub otherwise known as the Gulf of Mexico. That’s worrisome because hurricanes thrive on warm water. It fuels the heat and water vapor that make them stronger and capable of dumping more extreme rainfall. And unseasonably warm water temperatures have lingered in the Gulf for weeks, making it even hotter than normal.

In a worst-case scenario Tuesday, the tropical cyclone will be moving along the coast in water temperatures among the hottest on record in the Gulf as it spins toward a landfall overnight or Wednesday morning.

Evacuation urged ahead of potential wall of water  

Catastrophic impacts from a storm surge of up to 15 feet above ground level topped by large, destructive waves are possible along a stretch of more than 100 miles of coastline from the Aucilla River to Yankeetown in the Big Bend region, the hurricane center said. A storm surge of 3 feet or more is possible, depending on the timing of high tides, to the north and the south from west of Apalachicola to Everglades City. Residents were urged to heed evacuation orders. 

For context, the maximum water level measured after Hurricane Ian in Fort Myers Beach last fall was 15 feet. The hurricane center concluded in its post-Ian report that storm surge killed 41 people, more than any other single cause. The U.S. Geological Survey, university researchers and professional storm chasers were out placing specialty equipment along the coast Tuesday to measure the expected surge.The geological survey said Idalia’s surge could cause changes all along the state’s west coast, washing over sandy beaches and cutting into dunes.

Old nuclear power plant braces for Idalia

About 85 miles north of Tampa along the Gulf of Mexico, the retired Crystal River Nuclear Plant sits near Idalia’s forecasted path. Part of Duke Energy’s 5,100-acre complex that also includes active fossil fuel-powered plants in Citrus County, the old nuclear plant began decontamination and dismantling in 2020. In an email, federal Nuclear Regulatory Commission spokesperson Neil Sheehan said there is no operating reactor that would cause concern. Officials remain in contact with plant personnel who must complete storm preparation, including ensuring radioactive materials are secured, he said.

Hurricane preparations for the site were completed Monday, Duke Energy spokesperson Mary Kathryn Green said in an email. Radioactive materials are permanently placed in shielded containers that withstand the effects of extreme weather, she said. Used nuclear fuel also remains sealed in on-site storage.

Keith Richardson, a spokesperson for Duke Energy, said the company was securing anything that could become airborne, storing equipment and ensuring generators are supplied should power be lost. Afterward, staff plan to do walkthroughs and inspections, he said.

“In terms of the process, that’s all accounted for,” Richardson said.

− Eduardo Cuevas

Big Bend is mostly rural, thinly populated

The Big Bend, the region where the Florida Panhandle transitions into the peninsula, is tree-packed and rural. Taylor County, the southernmost county in the Big Bend, is home to only about 22,000 people, ranking it 54^th in population out of the state’s 67 counties. To the western side, Franklin county ranks 64^th, with a population of about 12,500. In 2021, about 19% of the residents in Franklin County lived below the poverty line, one of the poorest counties in the state.

Most of the population lives along the Apalachee Bay, a swampy swath of Florida where parts o the coastline remain undeveloped. Inland, three state forests connect the panhandle to the peninsula, and the tall pines that line the Big Bend Scenic Byway are very sensitive to wind damage and pose a threat to homes in high-speed winds.

− Ana Goni-Lessan, Tallahassee Democrat

Small wobble could drastically alter storm’s impact

Floridians were anxiously waiting to see whether Idalia follows the forecast track or makes any kind of last-minute wobble to the east that could bring worse-than-expected damage from wind and water. Hurricane Ian last year and Hurricane Charley in 2004 curved toward a landfall a little earlier than expected.  Any movement closer to land could increase the effects of storm surge, rain and higher winds closer to the center of the hurricane.  

One neighborhood near Tampa Bay on Tuesday morning illustrated the gamut of emotions among residents on the west coast, but outside the forecast cone. One was putting up shutters while another was laying sod.  Kevin Guthrie, executive director of the Florida Division of Emergency Management, stressed that everyone should prepare for the worst.

“The storm is going to be here soon,” Guthrie said.  “I implore you to finalize your disaster preparedness actions right now.”  

Storm surge as high as 15 feet; evacuation orders in 22 counties

Idalia is forecast to make landfall overnight Tuesday or early Wednesday as a major hurricane with sustained winds near 120 mph. Storm surge − a sudden rise in water levels along beaches and into inland waterways − as high as 15 feet could slam the coast south of Florida’s Big Bend near the eventual point of landfall. Storm surge of at least 2 to 3 feet was possible along the state’s entire west coast, depending on how Idalia’s landfall coincides with full moon high tides. A storm surge of 4 to 7 feet could occur in Tampa Bay, the hurricane center warned. 

Ryan Truchelut, chief meteorologist at Florida-based WeatherTiger, said Idalia will likely bring “catastrophic surge” to much of the west-central Florida and Big Bend coastline and a core of destructive winds to parts of North Florida. Idalia could become just the second Category 3 or higher hurricane − winds exceeding 110 mph − to make landfall there in the past 170 years, he said.

At least 22 of Florida’s 67 counties had evacuation orders in place, and schools have closed in many counties as residents prepare for high winds and potential flash flooding. 

What is storm surge?:Explaining a hurricane’s deadliest and most destructive threat

Evacuation orders:Hurricane Idalia rapidly intensifying; 22 Florida counties under evacuation orders

A foot of rain, tornadoes possible

Rainfall of 4 to 8 inches is forecast along portions of the state’s west coast and Panhandle, as well as along the path of the storm through Southeast Georgia and the eastern Carolinas, with isolated amounts up to 12 inches near where Idalia makes landfall, the National Weather Service said.

Tropical storm warnings were posted along all of Georgia’s coast and much of the Florida and South Carolina coasts. Cities such as Charlotte and Raleigh, North Carolina, are likely to see a few inches of rain as Idalia moves along the Carolina coasts before curving northeastward over the Atlantic Ocean,  AccuWeather said.

“Tornadoes can also occur to the east of the center of the circulation as it moves across Florida,” AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dan Pydynowski said.

Weather Channel meteorologist Jim Cantore seen on Cedar Key

Sunday posts on X, formerly Twitter, that indicated The Weather Channel meteorologist Jim Cantore would show up in Florida were confirmed Monday. Cantore is long known for being in the middle of major storm events. An X user whose handle is Lt. Col. William Reid tweeted a photo from a Cedar Key restaurant, presumably Steamers: “Ran into the Jim Cantore while having dinner.”

Photos of the restaurant’s page on Facebook show a “dollar bill wall,” similar to the dollar bill wall in Reid’s tweet. Cantore has quite a history in Florida storms. You can read more here.

— Jennifer Sangalang, USA TODAY Network-Florida 

Contributing: Jennifer Borresen