Rain chances ramp up midweek; low-end severe weather risk

From Arctic air to a heavy rain threat? We’re tracking a big pattern change here in Central Texas.

AUSTIN, Texas — Our weather has been wild this past week, with a 5-day streak of below-freezing lows coming to an end Saturday morning and a dusting of snow this past Tuesday.

However, we’re now much milder, which means anything that falls from the sky will be of the liquid variety – and we could have a lot of rain this upcoming week.

Here’s what we’re tracking.

Drizzle on Monday and Tuesday

A few showers fell across Austin this weekend, with that dreariness expected to continue into the early part of the work week. Monday and Tuesday will feature patchy drizzle and possible fog for morning commuters.

While there will be a moist feel to the air, significant rain accumulations will stay out of the forecast until Wednesday.

A Pacific front incoming Wednesday will give way to scattered showers throughout much of the day, with a line of rain and thunderstorms incoming late night into Thursday morning.

Heavier rain incoming

We’ve been tracking the increasing likelihood of healthy rains for Thursday. The speed of this system increases with the latest model runs, and overall totals have decreased as a result.

We are also tracking the low-end potential for strong to severe storms. Currently, the Storm Prediction Center has outlined the Hill County with a “slight,” level 2 out of 5, risk for severe weather, late Wednesday into early Thursday morning.

There is also an ongoing 15% chance for strong to severe storm potential for all of Thursday.

Rainfall totals

We’re continuing to track model data changing up the closer we get to the event. We’re now tracking around an inch and a half to 2 inches along the Interstate 35 corridor and points east, while the Hill Country could only get around an inch of rain at best. But this is still a few days out, so we’ll continue to monitor this closely.