Researchers forecast 1 major Gulf hurricane in 2025 season

RALEIGH, N.C. — North Carolina State University researchers are forecasting a near-average hurricane season for 2025.

Released Tuesday, NC State researchers predict the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season will produce between 12 and 15 named storms, which aligns with historical averages. The long-term average, observed between 1951-2023, is 11 named storms. The recent 30-year average between 1991-2020 is 14.4 named storms per year in the Atlantic basin.

Of these predicted storms:

• 6 to 8 may strengthen to hurricane status. The 30-year average is 7 hurricanes.
• 2 to 3 could become major hurricanes.
• 1 to 3 named storms may form in the Gulf.
• 1 to 2 Gulf storms could become hurricanes.
• 1 Gulf storm has the potential to develop into a major hurricane.

The forecast was developed by a team led by NC State’s Professor Lian Xie and lead scientist Xia Sun using a methodology that analyzes over 100 years of historical hurricane data alongside current weather patterns and sea-surface temperatures.

The only other 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season forecast published to date comes from Colorado State University.

CSU is calling for an above-average hurricane season. To date, their forecast acts as a median between the seasonal average and last year’s numbers of 18 named storms, 11 hurricanes and 5 major hurricanes.

NOAA’s National Hurricane Center forecast for 2025 has not yet been published.

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30.