Chances of a hurricane impacting NC are 'above normal' this season, experts say

Colorado State University’s meteorology department released an update to their 2024 hurricane season forecast this week. The update increased the forecast and calls for “an extremely active Atlantic hurricane season in 2024”.

The updated CSU forecast calls for a well-above normal number of named storms (25 – that’s the whole list of names), more hurricanes than usual, and double the normal number of major hurricanes (category 3-5).

This year’s updated forecast calls for an above-normal chance of a named storm or hurricane coming within 50 miles of North Carolina. The chance is about 15% higher than normal that a named storm or hurricane will impact us here at home. The chance of a major hurricane impacting us is 11% with the normal being 8%.

The Florida numbers really stood out to me: A 95% chance of named storm, 71% chance of a hurricane, and 40% chance of a major hurricane coming within 50 miles.

The unusually high forecast from Colorado State, N.C. State, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) stems from some stand-out forecast variables:

• Record high sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic – extending all the way back to the winter months
• La Nina expected to develop during the peak of hurricane season which lowers the amount of wind shear in the Atlantic (this helps to prevent and weaken storms)
• An active West African Monsoon

When comparing this year’s set-up in the Atlantic ocean, the analog includes some very memorable years: 2005 and the record-breaking 2020.

Other analogs include 1886, 1926, 1933, 1995 and 2010.