Hurricane watch for Florida's gulf coast; NC could see 6-10 inches of rain next week

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Tropical Depression 4 formed Friday night in the Atlantic Ocean, and much of North Carolina is in its path. Model plots show the system impacting Florida this weekend and North Carolina next week.

5 a.m. Saturday: Lots of rain likely by mid-week

While the new models show an increased threat to North Carolina over previous models, it’s too soon to know the exact timing or impact of the system. The center of the storm could stay way offshore or could be as far inland as the Triangle. Early estimates show the bulk of the impact being near the coast, where they could see 6 to 10 inches of rain next week. Please note, however, that any shift westward would bring that potential farther into the Sandhills and Triangle.

As the storm has become more organized, forecast models have increased the threat to North Carolina, especially for lots of rain, said WRAL meteorologist Chris Michaels.

“Tropical Storm Debby next week could bring rain to our area Wednesday through Friday,” said WRAL meteorologist Mike Maze.

At 5 a.m. Saturday, Tropical Depression 4, which will likely be named Debby, had winds of 30 mph and was traversing Cuba. The system is projected to move up the Florida coast before re-entering the Atlantic.

“With a storm like this, it’s important that we not fixate on the category (tropical storm vs. category 1, etc.),” Michaels said. “Because it’s a slow-mover, it could bring A LOT of rain wherever it meanders.”

WRAL Severe Weather Center will keep you up to date as forecast develops

The National Hurricane Center issues updates every couple of hours, and WRAL Severe Weather Center will alert you as the forecast is refined and the impact and path become more clear. Path updates occur at 5 a.m., 11 a.m., 5 p.m. and 11 p.m. Position and strength updates happen at 2 a.m, 8 a.m., 2 p.m. and 8 p.m.

Peak hurricane season is upon us

Hurricane season, which begins in June, really heats up for the Carolinas from mid-August through mid-October, but it’s possible to see a hurricane make landfall any time of the year. The 2024 hurricane season has been forecast to be an active one due to a La Niña pattern.

A La Niña pattern means weaker easterly trade winds and below average vertical wind shear. Basically, in La Niña conditions, there is less wind to break up a tropical system as it organizes. WRAL meteorologist Kat Campbell says, “It’s easier for storms to form and easier for them to strengthen.”

How many hurricanes will North Carolina get?

Over the past 30 years, an average hurricane season would see:

14 named storms – those of tropical storm strength or greater

7 hurricanes – Categories 1 through 5. Category 1 storms, with wind speeds of 74 to 95 mph, can still do damage to trees, toss outdoor furniture and knock out power.

3 major hurricanes – Category 3, 4 or 5, with winds of a minimum 111 mph. These are storms that can blow off roofs and flatten buildings.

Although the 30-year average is for 14 named storms, we have exceeded that average in seven of the past 10 years.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has estimated between 17 and 25 tropical storms for the 2024 season, including 8 to 13 hurricanes this season and 4 to 7 major hurricanes, which is a Category 3 or higher.

Through July, only three named storms had formed. The next one would be named Debby.

“What that’s saying is, don’t necessarily pay close attention to the numbers, but we are expecting an active season headed this way,” WRAL meteorologist Anthony Baglione said.

How to prepare for a tropical storm or hurricane

From late spring through the fall, there is always the chance that a hurricane will form in the Atlantic Ocean and impact North Carolina. While rough surf and overwash is a danger along the coast, hurricanes can bring torrential downpours, inland flooding, downed trees and even tornadoes to the Triangle.

Property owners should consider flood insurance and make sure to keep up home maintenance so that roofs, shingle and outdoor furniture are secure when high winds blow.

Make an emergency plan and communicate with each family member so that you can make a choice – to stay or go.

No matter where you live, you could lose power. It always pays to be prepared for a storm that can knock out power with a survival kit that includes non-perishable food, cash and plenty of clean, bottled water.

Worst hurricanes in North Carolina history

One of North Carolina’s most destructive hurricanes, Hurricane Fran in September 1996, blasted the Triangle with winds at near-hurricane strength. It left a landscape littered without trees in virtually every neighborhood and power outages that lasted for more than a week.

Hurricane Floyd in September 1999 inundated eastern North Carolina, including Rocky Mount, Wilson, Tarboro and Princeville, and put entire communities under water. The storm destroyed more than 8,000 homes and damaged 67,000 more.

In October 2016, Hurricane Matthew skirted the coast but generated devastating flooding across central and eastern North Carolina. The hurricane dumped more than a foot of rain 100 miles inland, swelling streams and rivers to levels above what Hurricane Floyd produced in 1999.

Hurricane Florence, in September 2018, brought a record 8.27-foot storm surge. Over the next three days, it produced up to 30 inches of rainfall over eastern North Carolina. Interstates 95 and 40 were both closed due to flooding, and 42 people died across the state.

Arguably, the most powerful hurricane in NC, Hurricane Hazel in October 1954 caused major flooding and damage as it made landfall. More than 1,000 people were killed, and it caused about $409 million in damage. The massive amount of destruction left by Hurricane Hazel earned it the nickname “the Bulldozer.”