Dorian weakens to a Category 3 hurricane, almost at a standstill over the Bahamas

ST. PETERSBURG, Fla — People in parts of the northern Bahamas have been experiencing this for, quite literally, hours — nonstop: storm surge up to roofs and winds of at least an EF-2 tornado.

Hurricane Dorian remains stationary as it continues its hours-long assault on the islands. The Category 3 hurricane is about 100 miles east of West Palm Beach, Florida, according to the National Hurricane Center’s latest advisory.

The storm is producing maximum sustained winds up to 120 mph.

Grand Bahama Island continues to experience catastrophic winds and storm surge. It first made landfall in Elbow Cay, Bahamas, around 12:45 p.m. Sunday with maximum sustained winds of 185 mph as a Category 5 hurricane. Hurricane Dorian’s falling wind speeds since then made it a Category 4 storm Monday morning.

However, Dorian remains an extremely destructive storm.

The most reliable weather computer models have been consistent in keeping the powerful storm just off the Florida coast and away from landfall. These models, however, are not forecasts — and they tend to change with every update.

In fact, some models include parts of Florida’s east coast for significant impacts or a potential landfall.

LIVE BLOG: The latest, need-to-know information on Hurricane Dorian

The following watches and warnings are in effect:

• Hurricane warning: Grand Bahama and the Abacos Islands in the northwestern Bahamas, Jupiter Inlet to Ponte Vedra Beach
• Hurricane watch: North of Deerfield Beach to Jupiter Inlet, Flagler/Volusia County line to the Altamaha Sound Georgia
• Tropical storm warning: North of Deerfield Beach to Jupiter Inlet, north of Ponte Vedra Beach to South Santee River 
• Tropical storm watch: North of Golden Beach to Deerfield Beach, Lake Okeechobee
• Storm surge warning: Lantana to Savannah River
• Storm surge watch: North of Deerfield Beach to south of Lantana, Altamaha Sound to South Santee River

RELATED: What’s the difference between a hurricane watch and a warning?

The National Hurricane Center said hazards for the islands include winds gusts greater than 180 mph and storm surge 12-18 feet above normal tide levels, with possibly higher waves.

10Weather and National Hurricane Center meteorologists expect the core of Dorian to continue churning near the Bahamas.

From there, the latest data suggests Dorian will make that eventual slow turn to the north. This is a positive forecast for the Tampa Bay region but one of most concern for Florida’s east coast because a slow, powerful storm that rides the coastline is likely to bring more prolonged and significant impacts.

Again, stay tuned to the latest forecast as Dorian’s track and intensity become more certain. 

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Spaghetti models

Each line represents a computer model’s best “guess” of where the center of the storm will go. Together, they look like spaghetti noodles. Remember, impacts from a tropical system can and do occur miles away from the center.

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Tropical track

This is the latest “cone of uncertainty,” which shows an area where the center of the storm could go, when and how strong it might be at the given time.

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Satellite and radar

The latest satellite and radar image for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea and Atlantic Ocean.

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Watches and warnings

What’s a watch? What’s a warning? Here are the official alerts that can be issued for your area and what you should do.

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