Hurricane Dorian finally begins to move away from Grand Bahama

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ST. PETERSBURG, Fla — Hurricane Dorian’s core is finally moving away from Grand Bahama, although dangerous winds and life-threatening storm surge will continue through this evening.

Dorian has been downgraded to a Category 2 storm with sustained winds of 110 mph. As of the latest National Hurricane Center update, Dorian was located about 105 miles east of Fort Pierce, Florida. It’s moving to the northwest at 5 mph.

People living in parts of the northern Bahamas have been dealing with hours of nonstop storm surge up to roofs and strong winds.

The government of the Bahamas has changed the hurricane warning to a tropical storm warning for Grand Bahama and the Abacos Islands.

Dorian first made landfall in Elbow Cay, Bahamas, around 12:45 p.m. Sunday with maximum sustained winds of 185 mph as a Category 5 hurricane. Hurricane Dorian’s falling wind speeds since then made it a Category 4 storm Monday morning. From there, it weakened further.

However, Dorian remains an extremely destructive storm.

The most reliable weather computer models have been consistent in keeping the powerful storm just off the Florida coast and away from landfall. These models, however, are not forecasts — and they tend to change with every update.

In fact, some models include parts of Florida’s east coast for significant impacts or a potential landfall.

LIVE BLOG: The latest, need-to-know information on Hurricane Dorian

The following watches and warnings are in effect:

Hurricane warning: Jupiter Inlet to Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida; North of Edisto Beach, South Carolina to South Santee River
Hurricane watch: North of Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida to Edisto Beach, South Carolina; North of South Santee River, South Carolina to Duck, North Carolina; Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds
Tropical storm warning: Grand Bahama and the Abacos Islands in the northwestern Bahamas; North of Deerfield Beach to Jupiter Inlet, north of Ponte Vedra Beach to Edisto Beach, South Carolina
Storm surge warning: Jupiter Inlet, Florida to South Santee River, South Carolina
Storm surge watch: North of South Santee River, South Carolina to Cape Lookout, North Carolina

The National Hurricane Center said hazards for the islands include powerful wind gusts and storm surge 12-18 feet above normal tide levels, with possibly higher waves.

Dorian’s apparent turn northwest is a positive forecast for the Tampa Bay region but one of most concern for Florida’s east coast because a slow, powerful storm that rides the coastline is likely to bring more prolonged and significant impacts. Florida is technically out of the cone of uncertainty in the latest hurricane track, but that definitely doesn’t mean the coast is out of the woods. And, people should continue to brace for the storm.

Again, stay tuned to the latest forecast as Dorian’s track and intensity become more certain.

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Spaghetti models

Each line represents a computer model’s best “guess” of where the center of the storm will go. Together, they look like spaghetti noodles. Remember, impacts from a tropical system can and do occur miles away from the center.

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Tropical track

This is the latest “cone of uncertainty,” which shows an area where the center of the storm could go, when and how strong it might be at the given time.

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