Tropical Storm Fernand forms in Gulf of Mexico; targets South Texas, NE Mexico coasts

HOUSTON — Tropical Storm Fernand has formed in the Gulf of Mexico, and people along the lower Texas Coast and northeastern coast of Mexico should monitor its progress.

IThe Government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning from La Pesca to Barra del Tordo and from Barra El Mezquital to the Mouth of the Rio Grande River.

At 2 p.m. Houston time,. Fernand’s winds were 40 mph and it’s Rmoving west at 7 mph. 

In Houston, we don’t have to worry much about it as the forecast track has it continuing westward. But our friends and neighbors in South Texas and in Mexico will want to keep a close eye on it.

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What does this mean for Texas?

For Houston, not much. But in South Texas and the lower Texas Coast they can expect two to four inches of rain through Friday with the potential for flash flooding. 

Mexico will get the worst of the weather with six to 12 inches of rain expected – the highest in the Sierra Madre Oriental of Tamaulipas and Nuevo Leon. Through Friday some parts of Mexico could get 15 inches of rain.

10 a.m. Tropical Depression Seven Update

NHC

1 p.m. advisory from NHC

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK:

At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fernand was located near latitude 23.5 North, longitude 95.3 West.  Fernand is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue today.  A motion toward the west-northwest is forecast tonight and Wednesday.  This motion could bring the center of Fernand near or over the coast of northeastern Mexico late Wednesday.
Recent satellite wind data indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional slow strengthening is forecast before the system moves inland.  A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Fernand this afternoon to provide more information on the intensity.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (170 km) mainly to the west of the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND:

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area during the day Wednesday, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous.  Squalls with gusts to tropical-storm force are likely north of the warning area along portions of the northeastern coast of Mexico and the lower Texas coast.

RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce the following rainfall totals through Friday:

Northeast Mexico: 6 to 12 inches, isolated 15 inches, highest in the Sierra Madre Oriental of Tamaulipas and Nuevo Leon. This rainfall may cause life-threatening mudslides and flash floods.

South Texas and the Lower Texas Coast: 2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.

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