Tornado Watch issued for Charlotte metro

CHARLOTTE, N.C. — A cluster of storms will bring the threat of severe weather to the Charlotte, North Carolina, region Thursday, but the chances of tornadoes and damaging winds have gone down, according to First Warn chief meteorologist Brad Panovich. 

The biggest threats associated with the storm system will be damaging winds, hail and isolated tornadoes, although the chances have gone down for most of the region.

“It’s good news and bad news,” Panovich said. “The severe weather threat has gone down for most of the area but areas south and east of Charlotte are still at high risk for powerful thunderstorms.”

At 2:10 p.m., the National Weather Service (NWS) issued a Tornado Watch for much of our viewing area, along with nearby regions. In the Charlotte viewing area, Cabarrus, Cleveland, Lincoln, Gaston, Mecklenburg, and Union counties are affected North Carolina counties. Meanwhile, the South Carolina counties affected in our area include Chester, York, and Lancaster counties. Nearby, much of the upstate of South Carolina is affected along with Elbert County in northeast Georgia. This Tornado Watch will last until 6 p.m. or until the NWS expires it.

Panovich stressed that despite the threat has gone down, that doesn’t mean it’s zero. 

“We have a 1-4 scale on these outlooks. Yesterday, we had a 3, now it’s a two. It’s still a two, it’s not zero, and that’s important to remember,” Panovich said. 

Panovich said it’s likely we could see a tornado watch issued for parts of the viewing area as warm air continues to push into the Carolinas.

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Panovich said the Charlotte metro area is now at a “medium risk” for seeing severe weather. Areas included are Uptown Charlotte and the I-77 corridor north of Charlotte. Panovich said he’s growing confident the mountains and foothills of North Carolina likely won’t see any severe weather during Thursday afternoon’s storms. 

Locations south and east of I-85, including Monroe, Wadesboro and Rockingham in North Carolina, as well as Lancaster and Chester counties in South Carolina, remain in the “high risk” category. 

“Across the mountains and foothills, once you get east and southeast of I-85, I really think that’s where we’ve got to watch,” Panovich said.

A warm, moist area moved into the Carolinas Thursday. This warm air will prime the atmosphere with “thunderstorm fuel” needed to make supercells, a powerful thunderstorm capable of becoming severe. 

Panovich said that warm air is moving a little slower than initially expected, which is why the mountains and foothills are at lower risk of severe weather. A pocket of cold air lingering over the Carolinas ate up some of that thunderstorm fuel, creating a smaller window of time for strong storms.

Panovich believes the time frame will be anywhere from 1 p.m. until 5 p.m. for the Charlotte area. 

“Around 2 or 3 p.m. there’s a little band of storms moving across I-77,” Panovich said. “Anywhere in here, this would be more favorable for strong storms because this is peak heating of the day.”

The weather pattern is similar to a summer pattern, whereas discrete, pop-up cells will require everyone to monitor the weather and stay weather aware.

Along with the high risk comes a 5-10% chance of seeing a tornado in Charlotte and communities south and east. These percentages are very high for the Carolinas.

The probability remains at 5% north and west of Charlotte, with a lower probability in the mountains and foothills.

Even the highest elevations, such as Boone and Blowing Rock, still have a 5% chance of seeing a tornado.

By comparison, a typical day has a tornado probability that is a fraction of a single percent.

Damaging winds can occur in any storm — regardless of whether or not that storm is producing a tornado. A Severe Thunderstorm Warning will be issued for any storm that is producing damaging winds in excess of 60 mph.

Of all the forms of severe weather possible Thursday, it is damaging winds that are most likely to be observed on a widespread scale.

Thunderstorm winds are capable of producing damage similar to a tornado. If a Severe Thunderstorm Warning is issued, you should move indoors immediately.

And it’s worth noting: rainfall and lightning are not requirements for Severe Thunderstorm Warnings. Any storm can produce damaging lightning regardless of whether or not it is warned. If you hear thunder, you’re close enough to be struck by lightning and should seek shelter immediately.

RELATED: Brad Panovich | Here’s why wind shear can cause severe spring weather

Hail Threat

The greatest risk for hail will come during the height of the severe weather window in Charlotte: from 12 p.m. until 4 p.m.

Storms producing damaging hail, defined as hail one inch in size or larger, will prompt the National Weather Service to issue a Severe Thunderstorm Warning.

Hail causes over $1 billion in crop damage every year

RELATED: The dangers of hail: Severe Weather Preparedness Week:

It is likely the National Weather Service will issue a Severe Thunderstorm Watch or a Tornado Watch ahead of the event.

Watches are issued when particular weather conditions, such as thunderstorms or tornadoes, are expected in the hours to follow.

The National Weather Service would issue Severe Thunderstorm Warnings and Tornado Warnings when life-threatening weather is occurring in real-time.

This scenario is already playing out across the South Wednesday, where watches and warnings for tornadoes are issued in states including Arkansas, Mississippi, and Alabama.

• Move to the lowest, and most interior, room inside a sturdy structure. Put as many walls between you and the outside world as possible.
• If you live in a high-rise apartment building, get to a lower level or interior stairwell, as far away from windows as possible.
• Stay away from windows and doors.
• Cover yourself in a helmet or blanket.
• Have shoes and pants on before moving to your safe place. If damage occurs during the storm, you will want to be wearing protective clothing when you emerge from your safe place.

• Emerge from your safe place carefully
• Make sure you’ve got shoes on so you can leave without hurting your feet on possible fallen debris
• If there’s damage to your property, go ahead and take photos to help file future insurance claims

The best way to prepare for severe weather Thursday is to be ready now. You can download the WCNC Charlotte Weather app on your phone to get real-time alerts from the weather team as we track the latest in the area. 

You should also have a battery-powered NOAA weather radio set to alarm and portable chargers handy in case you lose power during severe weather.

The WCNC Charlotte Weather team will also provide real-time alerts on social media, and we’ll be live on-air and online if conditions get worse. You should also check in with family and friends regularly and let others know of any severe weather headed their way if they’re not aware.