Tropics: Tropical Storm Elsa forms in the Atlantic; headed into the Caribbean by Friday

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A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for a portion of the Lesser Antilles. Impacts, if any, to Florida are still unclear. Stay tuned for updates.

JACKSONVILLE, Fla. — Tropical Depression Five has formed into Tropical Storm Elsa. Impacts, if any, to the state of Florida or the United States, are still unclear. Continue to stay tuned for updates. We will be watching this system as it heads into the Caribbean by Friday and toward the Greater Antilles early next week.

There remains a great deal of uncertainty of the intensity and track forecast after this system moves into the Caribbean. Make sure to check in every day or so for updates. We will know more by early next week, so enjoy your holiday weekend.

The tropical cyclone’s cloud pattern became a little better organized overnight, with convective banding features becoming more evident over the western and southwestern portions of the circulation.  Upper-level outflow is well-defined to the west of the system and restricted over the eastern semicircle.  The current intensity is set at 35 kt in agreement with Dvorak estimates from SAB and TAFB, and just slightly above the maximum winds from an earlier scatterometer pass, making the cyclone a tropical storm.  Elsa is the earliest-known fifth named storm on record for the Atlantic basin in the satellite era (1966-present), breaking the record formerly held by Edouard on July 6, 2020.

Hurricane season is already here and it’s time to be prepared if you aren’t already. Make sure you have had conversations with your loved ones about what you would do if a storm were to threaten.

This year, NOAA released the new seasonal averages for the Atlantic basin. According to the 30-year data from 1991 to 2020, the new averages include 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. The previous Atlantic storm averages, based on the period from 1981 to 2010, were 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. The averages from 1951-1980 , were 11 named storms, 5 hurricanes, and 1 major.

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Hurricane safety and preparedness are critically important before the season begins on June 1. NOAA’s National Weather Service provides resources to prepare for hurricane hazards and real-time updates about active weather systems from the National Hurricane Center at www.hurricanes.gov

The Atlantic hurricane season officially runs from June 1 to November 30.

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