- NC's cost for Hurricane Helene damage is nearly $60 billion, state says
- State to develop drone program to better respond to disasters like Helene, Florence
- South Carolina residents face deadline to get storm debris out to the curb after Hurricane Helene
- SCDOT to pick up Hurricane Helene debris for a final day in South Carolina
- Hurricane Helene destroyed this county's only hospital. Now, an urgent care facility is caring for the community.
How the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season will be different than past years
Forecasters have a new storm surge model this year and will be able to extend tropical weather outlooks to seven days.
CHARLOTTE, N.C. — In the Atlantic Basin, the hurricane season lasts from June 1 until Nov. 30. Nearly all tropical cyclones form in the Atlantic during that time period. Only one day into the season, Tropical Storm Arlene became the first named storm of the 2023 season. The peak of the season in the Atlantic typically takes place from mid-August to mid-October.
When it comes to 2023, El Niño returns, which is the natural temporary warming of the Pacific every few years. El Niño can strengthen hurricanes in the Pacific Basin but tends to weaken hurricanes forming in the Atlantic Basin. That is why long-range forecasters are predicting a slightly below-average hurricane season for the Atlantic this year.
In 2023, the National Hurricane Center is upgrading its computer model system that it uses to predict hurricane storm surge, which is the wall of water that a hurricane can push onto the land. Storm surge often is the most deadly part of a hurricane as it can cause people to evacuate the area. Before the change, National Hurricane Center forecasters would be able to predict how high the storm surge would be about two days before a storm was due to make landfall. Now, the National Hurricane Center has extended the lead time to three days before. The center hopes this will give residents more time to evacuate, which could help save lives.
“It gives you kind of that color-coded segments along the coast for what kind of storm surge ranges you might have,” Robbie Berg, acting chief hurricane specialist at the National Hurricane Center, told WCNC Charlotte Meteorologist Brittany Van Voorhees. “I think it’s a pretty easy way to just get a general view of what kind of storm surge might occur in that particular storm.”
Another addition is the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico will get real-time storm surge forecasts when a storm is in the area — something that wasn’t available before.
In addition, tropical weather outlooks have been extended from five days out to seven days, providing a bigger heads up for residents to make decisions about whether to evacuate in advance of a storm, Berg said.
Forecasters are predicting a “near-normal” season, but Mike Brennan, the new director at the National Hurricane Center in Miami, stressed during a late-May news conference that there’s really nothing normal when it comes to hurricanes.
“A normal season might sound good in comparison to some of the hurricane seasons in the past few years,” he said. “But there’s nothing good about a near-normal hurricane season in terms of activity.”
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted in late May a 40% chance of 2023 being a near-normal hurricane season, a 30% chance of an above-average season, which has more storms than usual, and a 30% chance of a below-normal season, which has fewer.
“So we’re expecting a busy season with 12 to 17 named storms,” Brennan said, adding that five to nine of those storms could become hurricanes, with one to four growing into major hurricanes.
“It only takes one storm affecting your area to make it a busy season for you,” he said.
Brennan noted there are other factors that add to the uncertainty of the effects of El Niño, such as very warm sea surface temperatures, weaker low-level easterly flows and a more active African monsoon season.
“So these forces are going to kind of fight it out over the course of this hurricane season,” Brennan said. “We don’t know how this season’s going to play out.”
FEMA Director Deanne Criswell said her agency is working to protect residents in hurricane zones by getting them the “critical information that they need” and making it easier for people to apply for help.
She said the summer doesn’t just bring the start of hurricane season, but it’s also the beginning of wildfire season.
“So we are in the summer season of severe weather events, but I think as many of you know, it’s not just a summer season of severe weather anymore,” she said, noting weather-related events take place throughout the year.
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
Wake Up Charlotte To Go is a daily news and weather podcast you can listen to so you can start your day with the team at Wake Up Charlotte.
SUBSCRIBE: Apple Podcasts || Spotify || Stitcher || TuneIn || Google Podcasts
All of WCNC Charlotte’s podcasts are free and available for both streaming and download. You can listen now on Android, iPhone, Amazon, and other internet-connected devices. Join us from North Carolina, South Carolina, or on the go anywhere.