NOAA launches new hurricane model to improve storm forecasts

WILMINGTON, NC (WWAY) — The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has a new model to help forecast hurricanes.

The Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS) was put into operations on June 27th and will run alongside existing models for the 2023 season before replacing them as NOAA’s premier hurricane forecasting model.

“The quick deployment of HAFS marks a milestone in NOAA’s commitment to advancing our hurricane forecasting capabilities, and ensuring continued improvement of services to the American public,” said NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad, Ph.D. “Development, testing and evaluations were jointly carried out between scientists at NOAA Research and the National Weather Service, marking a seamless transition from development to operations.”

Running the experimental version of HAFS from 2019 to 2022 showed a 10-15% improvement in track predictions compared to NOAA’s existing hurricane models. HAFS is expected to continue increasing forecast accuracy, therefore reducing storm impacts to lives and property.

Over the next four years, HAFS will undergo several major upgrades, ultimately leading to even more increased accuracy of forecasts, warnings and life-saving information, according to NOAA. An objective of the NOAA Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program (HFIP) is, by 2027, to reduce all model forecast errors by nearly half compared to errors seen in 2017.