Tornado watches in effect ahead of strong thunderstorms Monday afternoon

CHARLOTTE, N.C. — Tornado and severe thunderstorm watches have been issued for several North Carolina counties because of a severe weather threat through Monday evening.

The watch, which means conditions are favorable for the development of both tornadoes and severe thunderstorms, is in effect for Avery, Catawba, Caldwell, Alexander, Burke, Rowan, and Iredell counties. A severe thunderstorm watch is in effect for the rest of the Charlotte area, including Cabarrus, Chester Cleveland, Gaston, Lincoln, Mecklenburg, York and Union counties. Everyone throughout the Carolinas Monday should remain Weather Aware of the threat of damaging, severe weather. 

While a severe weather watch may extend for hours, individual storm warnings will be issued on a more localized level as individual storms pose threats in real time and in the minutes ahead.

The Charlotte area will see an extremely rare significant risk of severe weather with the possibility of severe winds and isolated tornadoes across the Carolinas Monday afternoon, chief meteorologist Brad Panovich said. 

The possiblity of severe weather and the risk of damaging winds across the entire Charlotte region is why Panovich and the entire WCNC Charlotte team of meteorologists says people should be Weather Aware Monday. 

The biggest risk will be damaging winds, but there is a chance of isolated, spin-up tornadoes, as well as excessive lightning, hail and heavy rain. Panovich says Monday’s risk of severe winds is as high as he’s ever seen in the Carolinas. 

RELATED: Severe weather watches vs warnings: What’s the difference? 

“Winds are almost into the extreme category,” Panovich said. “There’s a 45% chance of within 25 miles of any point on the map of seeing severe winds. That’s 58 or 60 mph or higher. That’s a 50-50 shot you’re going to see wind damage within 25 miles of your location.”

🌩️ If you like weather, watch Brad Panovich and the WCNC Charlotte Weather Team on their Emmy Award-winning Weather IQ YouTube channel.

The entire Charlotte area is at high risk of severe thunderstorms Monday afternoon and evening. The line will first move into the North Carolina mountains around 3 p.m. before getting to the Charlotte metro around 5 p.m. Meteorologist Chris Mulcahy says it’s rare for this type of setup to hit so late in summer, as the storms could form a “bow echo,” which can lead to spin-up tornadoes that happen within the leading edge of storms.

Forecaster Larry Sprinkle said the entire Charlotte area will be at risk for severe storms, which is why everyone should be Weather Aware.

“Every single county in our area is covered in the severe weather outlook,” Sprinkle said. “If you’re watching us, you’re in the bullseye for the potential for these strong storms tracking across the Charlotte area.”

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A stretch of more than 800 miles is at high risk of damaging winds and severe weather Monday. That means one in three storms has the potential for creating severe weather. The Charlotte area hasn’t see this kind of setup all year long, according to Mulcahy.

“How often is it that we’re in the bullseye? Literally we’re right in the center of this,” Mulcahy said.

Areas at high risk of severe thunderstorms and damaging winds include Albemarle, Boone, Charlotte, Chester, Concord, Gastonia, Hickory, Huntersville, Lancaster, Lincolnton, Monroe, Mooresville, Morganton, Rock Hill, Salisbury, Statesville, Taylorsville and Waxhaw. Simply put, if you’re in the Charlotte area, you need to be Weather Aware.

The first wave will move into the mountains around 3 p.m. Monday. This will affect areas such as Asheville, Boone, Jefferson, Morganton and Taylorsville. 

By 5 p.m., the storms will move closer to Charlotte and the metro. Areas expected to be impacted from 5-7 p.m. include Albemarle, Charlotte, Chester, Concord, Gastonia, Hickory, Lancaster Lincolnton, Monroe, Mooresville, Rock Hill, Shelby and Statesville. 

“One thing I’m worried about watching some of the data today is there are these celsl developing ahead of the main line. These could have rotation,” Panovich said. “These are the ones you have to be Weather Aware for, we could have tornadic cells ahead of the main line.”

The final wave of storms will move out of the Charlotte area and push east after 7 p.m. Areas including Cheraw, Rockingham and Wadesboro will be at risk of strong storms until around 9 p.m. These storms are likely to move in during the late afternoon and evening. We may see high temperatures in the mid-90s and dew point in the mid-70s, creating dangerous heat indices. A heat advisory has been issued for parts of the Charlotte area.

Mulcahy says the biggest threat will be damaging winds but you can’t rule out spin-up tornadoes. The squall line is projecting to develop kinks or “notches,” meaning the leading edge could be particularly violent. Panovich is also worried that some supercells could form before the main line, creating a second wave of severe storms. 

Panovich said this is one of those rare cases where the threat of tornadoes is higher in the mountains and foothills than it is across the Piedmont of North Carolina. 

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Monday will be very hot and humid across the Carolinas. With forecast temperatures in the mid-to-upper 90s and heat index values at or above 100 degrees, there will be plenty of “thunderstorm fuel” to generate severe weather.

“Just not a very comfortable day,” Sprinkle said.

A heat advisory is in effect for Anson, Cabarrus, Chester, Lancaster, Mecklenburg, Stanly and Union counties in the Charlotte area. These areas could see a heat index of 105 degrees Monday afternoon before the storms arrive.

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