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Hurricane Lee remains a strong Category 4 storm
Chief Meteorologist Brad Panovich says there are three likely scenarios with Hurricane Lee’s path.
CHARLOTTE, N.C. — Hurricane Lee is maintaining winds of at least 150 mph Friday a day after rapid intensification grew the storm to Category 5 strength.
As of 11 a.m. Friday, the storm had slipped just below the 157 mph wind threshold to maintain Category 5 status. The powerful hurricane shows no signs of any significant weakening trends and is expected to remain near the threshold between a Category 4 or Category 5 storm. Meteorologists urge the public to not get distracted by category numbers and instead focus on the winds.
On the Saffir Simpson hurricane wind scale, a major hurricane is a hurricane with winds of at least 111 mph, which is equivalent to Category 3 or higher.
With the storm’s track towards the north and west, our team continues to closely monitor the storm’s long-term path over the week ahead.
The good news is Lee is still far away from land and there’s not yet any long-term guidance that indicates the storm will make landfall in the U.S., but it’s still something to monitor, according to WCNC Charlotte Chief Meteorologist Brad Panovich.
The storm has shown impressive strengthening in such a small period of time. Lee became a tropical depression Tuesday before being upgraded to a tropical storm hours later. The storm officially became a hurricane at 5 p.m. Wednesday and climbed to Category 5 strength by the next evening.
“I want everyone to keep paying attention to it, but no, you should not be worried or freaking out about anything yet,” Panovich said. “It’s still so far out and still uncertain at those time ranges.”
Spaghetti models
The storm’s projected path has garnered attention because of the possibility it could impact the East Coast of the United States. As Panovich explained, even with the complete spaghetti model data, it is still too early to know where the storm will go.
“There is currently no long-range guidance that brings it to the East Coast,” Panovich said in a forecast analysis video posted to the Weather IQ YouTube channel. “That doesn’t mean it’s not going to impact the East Coast. It’s too far out to know that.”
Panovich projects it’ll be next week before there is enough long-term data to forecast potential U.S. impacts with any certainty.
Like spaghetti models that predict a storm’s path, there are also intensity models that predict a storm’s strength.
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Social media rumors
With the storm still more than 2,000 miles from any portion of the continental U.S., there is still a lot of time for speculation and rumors.
Panovich responded Wednesday to rumors posted to social media about the storm. Panovich, who has been forecasting weather in the Carolinas since 2003, disputes any claims – this early on – that the storm is going to make landfall in any particular place.
“So watch where and who you get information from about this storm,” he said. “There is more misinformation on this one.”
Key factors to watch
Hurricane Lee’s projected forecast path scenarios
Forecasting a hurricane’s path is complicated. For Lee, one of the biggest questions to answer is, “When will the storm begin to turn north?”
Driven by a powerful high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean and a dip in the jet stream over the United States, Lee will eventually turn north.
Panovich outlines three main scenarios:
- A turn sooner makes the risk greater for Bermuda but lesser for the United States.
- A turn later means a greater for North Carolina, South Carolina, and the U.S. coastline.
- A just-as-likely scenario means the storm could move safely between Bermuda and the United States with minimal impacts on land.
Even that latter scenario, Panovich said, is “splitting the uprights and too dang close [for comfort].”
What’s next
Model runs, which are published numerous times a day, will soon have clearer visibility into when that northward turn could happen. Even when that begins to appear in the computer models, such a turn would still be days away from happening.
“Big storms are like big ships, they don’t turn on a dime,” Panovich explained. “The sooner you start to see this storm drifting north and making that turn, the better. We don’t want it to wait to the last minute because they tend to struggle to do that.”
For the latest weather alerts, download the WCNC Charlotte mobile app and enable push notifications.
The historical peak of hurricane season is Sept. 10. Hurricane season ends on Nov. 30.
It never hurts to be prepared. Having an emergency supply kit – whether for this storm or a future storm – is a great way to get prepared ahead of any natural disaster.
Contact Brad Panovich at bpanovich@wcnc.com or follow him on Facebook, X and Instagram.
Contact Brittany Van Voorhees at bvanvoorhe@wcnc.com and follow her on Facebook, X and Instagram.
Contact KJ Jacobs at kjacobs3@wcnc.com and follow him on Facebook, X and Instagram.
WCNC Charlotte’s Weather IQ YouTube channel gives detailed explainers from the WCNC Charlotte meteorologists to help you learn and understand weather, climate and science. Watch previous stories where you can raise your Weather IQ in the YouTube playlist below and subscribe to get updated when new videos are uploaded.